These are not the best of times for political parties in Osun state as both major political parties faces the challenge of membership retention and management. This was one of the findings of the report of a survey conducted by the Democracy Polling Agency (DPA) from the period of August to October 2024.
The DPA affiliated with the Obafemi Awolowo University in its first edition on state of political parties in Osun state to be unveiled by late November disclosed four major findings covering the opposition All Progressive Congress, the People’s Democratic Party( and the splinter faction of the APC, the Omoluabi Progressives.
According to snippets from the report, the APC had split into two halves with the Omoluabi faction holding roughly 45 percent of the old APC membership with the remaining about 60 percent being with the Oyetola faction tagged Ilerioluwa group.
From the period covered by the survey, the 60 percent share of the APC for Oyetola has dwindled by close to 45 %. From across the three senatorial districts, the Oyetola faction of the APC has suffered torrents of decamping which may continues even as the survey was rounded up by October ending.
According to the report which contained data analysis of respondents, the APC membership across the 30 local Governments and area councils decreased by more than 45 percent, putting the opposition at slightly below the splinter group, the Omoluabi progressives.
Respondents who left the APC mostly moved to the ruling Peoples Democratic Party whose membership according to report has also swelled by more than 40 percent within the period under review.
Reasons cited for the mass exodus in the report from respondents’ reactions include impressive performance of the Osun Governor, the rigidity of state APC leadership to reconciliation moves, the slow response of Mr Oyetola to discontinue his guber bid, the worsening economic climate and series of disasters that had befell the party leadership in some local governments.
Of the 30 local governments and Area Council, APC decampees have cross carpeted to PDP in 27 local councils in the last three months. Data showed that decampees in their hundreds were discovered to be key leaders and grassroots mobilizers of the APC in wards and voting units across the state.
An interesting finding in the report is that the Omoluabi group is not making any harvest from the membership crisis rocking the state APC.
In seven local governments, the Omoluabi group actually lost key members to the ruling PDP. The report further confirmed that recent membership drive exercise yielded no major new ground or converts for the Aregbesola group.
Respondents cited the floating nature of the Omoluabi group, the resistance to pressure to discontinue alliance with the state PDP and harsh economic situation as factors responsible for the inability of the Omoluabi to harvest from APC loss.
The beneficiary of the membership crisis in the APC, the PDP is however facing a serious crisis of decampee management across the senatorial districts.
While PDP membership has increased by more than 50 percent in 2024 alone, there is a noticeable rift between old and new members.
According to the report, the State PDP has not fine tuned its strategy to ensure both old and new members cohabit without conflicts and fights. The report posited that such infighting is affecting the PDP in at least 10 of the 30 local governments.
