The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has warned that Nigeria must generate at least 27 million new formal jobs within the next five years or risk seeing unemployment and underemployment soar to 30 per cent.
The warning was contained in the NESG’s Jobs and Productivity Report, released on Monday ahead of the 31st Nigerian Economic Summit (NES#31) in Abuja.
According to the report, the next five years represent a “critical” period for stabilising the labour market and ensuring inclusive economic growth, with the country’s working-age population expected to hit 168 million by 2030.
“With the working-age population projected to reach 168 million by 2030, the country faces a defining challenge: to create 27 million new formal jobs or risk unemployment and underemployment rates doubling to 30 per cent,” the report stated.
The group emphasised that “jobs and productivity are central to Nigeria’s economic development,” warning that without the creation of millions of formal jobs, the economy will struggle to absorb its growing youth population.
It highlighted major challenges stalling employment growth, including a weak private sector base, skills mismatch, an underperforming education system, and jobless growth that fails to translate GDP expansion into real job creation.
The report also cited regulatory barriers and infrastructure gaps as serious impediments to competitiveness and urged the government to adopt reforms that encourage private sector-led growth.
To reverse current trends, NESG called for coordinated policy actions across key sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, ICT, and services—areas it identified as capable of creating large-scale employment.
“Key sectors that should drive formal job creation include manufacturing (including agro-processing), construction, information and communications technology (ICT) and professional services,” it stated.
“These sectors have the capacity to absorb labour from low-productivity sectors and drive the country’s structural transformation process. Collectively, they are expected to contribute to 35% (9.7 million) of new formal jobs, while manufacturing alone will account for 21% of new jobs created during the period.”
The NESG stressed that job creation must go hand-in-hand with productivity growth, urging the adoption of a “Jobs and Productivity Agenda” supported by data, accountability, and firm government commitment.
It also outlined the Nigeria Works Framework, a six-pillar plan designed to promote sustainable job creation through interventions in “Skills for Productivity, Sectoral Engines of Job Growth, Enterprise-Led Growth, Data, Institutions and Accountability, and Productivity for Prosperity.”
The report drew insights from data analysis, scenario modelling, case studies, and stakeholder interviews to evaluate the state of jobs and productivity in Nigeria.
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