Nigeria’s crude oil production has dropped below the quota set by the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), as new figures reveal a decline in output.
According to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), the country’s average daily production fell to approximately 1.47 million barrels per day (mbpd) in February, a decrease from the 1.54 mbpd recorded in January.
Nigeria’s OPEC quota stands at 1.5 mbpd. This reduction in production represents a loss of about 70,000 barrels per day, or approximately 2.1 million liters, over the course of a month.
In January, Nigeria had exceeded its OPEC quota by more than 30,000 barrels, earning praise from industry stakeholders who commended the government and agencies for their commitment to achieving the ambitious 2.06 mbpd target.
However, the latest figures from the NUPRC indicate that the country lost about 70,000 barrels daily from January to February.
Overall, total oil production, including both crude and condensate, decreased from 1.78 mbpd in January to 1.67 mbpd in February. The NUPRC reported that February’s production ranged from a low of 1.60 million barrels per day to a peak of 1.76 million barrels per day.
The daily average for the month stood at 1,671,953 barrels, comprising 1,465,006 barrels of crude oil and 206,948 barrels of condensate.
The decline is a setback for the government’s goals, especially considering that Nigeria failed to meet OPEC’s production quotas throughout 2022, 2023, and 2024. However, there was optimism at the start of 2025, with production rising from 1.4 mbpd in December 2024 to 1.5 mbpd in January.
Factors such as crude oil theft and pipeline vandalism have historically hindered Nigeria from meeting OPEC’s targets. Despite these challenges, Minister of State for Petroleum Resources Heineken Lokpobiri expressed confidence that the country could ramp up production to 3 mbpd this year, including crude oil and condensates, without violating OPEC’s regulations.
Ademola Adeyemi-Bero, Chairman of OPEC’s Board of Governors, suggested that Nigeria has the potential to produce up to 4 mbpd given its reserves, stressing the need for the country to demonstrate its capacity to exceed its current OPEC quota.
He noted that the increase in production in January was a step in the right direction, providing confidence that Nigeria could secure a larger quota.
The decline in production in February raises concerns that Nigeria may struggle to meet its budget target of 2.06 mbpd, which could impact oil revenues and the local refinery industry due to potential feedstock shortages.
